Tariff Reset With US Sets Stage for $120 Billion Trade Boom
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JAKARTA, investortrust.id – Indonesia sees a substantial opportunity to boost its trade volume with the United States following recent diplomatic and business engagements, as global supply chain dynamics shift and reciprocal tariff negotiations open new doors.
Anindya Novyan Bakrie, Chairman of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin), revealed that trade between Indonesia and the US could reach $80 billion within the next two to three years. He expressed even greater optimism for long-term growth, projecting trade volumes to hit $120 billion within four years, provided Indonesia executes strategic export-import policies effectively.
In a press conference held in Jakarta on Friday, May 9, 2025, Anindya emphasized, “Our prediction at Kadin is that current trade, which stands at approximately $40 billion, can double to $80 billion in just a few years. If we play our cards right, we could see this grow to $120 billion in four years.”
Currently, US trade data—cited during recent bilateral talks—show Indonesian exports to the US totaling around $25 billion and imports from the US reaching $13 billion. The $18 billion trade surplus held by Indonesia has become a focal point in ongoing discussions on tariff realignment, with Washington urging a more balanced trade framework.
The strategy being proposed involves increasing imports from the US by $18 billion to match the surplus, which would bring total bilateral trade to nearly $60 billion. Additional trade worth $20 billion is expected to be generated through reciprocal export-import expansions, especially as the US reduces dependency on countries like China.
“Indonesia has a real chance here, particularly in sectors such as textiles and footwear, to fill the supply gap left by China in the US market,” Anindya said. He noted that this segment alone could contribute an additional $10 billion in exports.
At the same time, US exporters see new opportunities to supply Indonesia with key agricultural commodities such as soybeans, wheat, dairy products, and meat—sectors where the US is globally competitive.
Data from Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency reveal that Indonesia’s top imports from the US in 2024 included machinery, electronics, and agricultural goods, while key exports to the US comprised footwear, apparel, rubber products, and furniture.
If realized, the $120 billion milestone would place the US close to China’s current trade volume with Indonesia, which stood at $130 billion. “This will bring US trade closer to China’s level, which is significant. Of course, this is only a projection since Kadin is not the direct negotiating party, but the potential is real and mutual,” Anindya added.