BRI Rally Continues, Analysts Set New Price Targets Despite Profit Dip
Key Takeaways
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JAKARTA, investortrust.id – Shares of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI), Indonesia’s largest retail lender, extended their rally on Thursday, climbing to Rp 4,300—its highest level since Jan. 30, 2025—boosted by continued foreign investor interest and resilient lending growth.
The stock surged 27.97% from its 2025 low of Rp 3,360 on Feb. 28 to reach Rp 4,300 in intraday trading, before settling at Rp 4,290 in the first session, up 0.70% for the day. BBRI outperformed its peers among the KBMI IV group of large banks, with PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) inching up 0.46% to Rp 5,475, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) flat at Rp 9,700, and PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) down 0.22% to Rp 4,510.
Foreign investors have been net buyers of BBRI shares, acquiring Rp 1.93 trillion worth of stock over the past month. BBRI ranked third behind PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) at Rp 2.83 trillion and BBCA at Rp 2.69 trillion in terms of net foreign inflows during the same period.
Bullish Forecasts Despite Credit Cost Pressures
Despite its recent rally, analysts say there is further upside for BBRI. Sucor Sekuritas reaffirmed its "buy" rating with a price target of Rp 5,525, while Verdhana Sekuritas projected a target of Rp 5,000.
Edward Lowis, analyst at Sucor Sekuritas, said BBRI’s first-quarter profit decline was largely due to higher credit costs, which rose to 3.5%—above the 3.0–3.2% projection. However, the bank has started showing signs of improvement in cost management.
"We estimate BRI’s Q1 2025 net profit realization is in line with our expectations, reflecting 24% of the full-year target," Lowis said.
Erwin Wijaya of Verdhana Sekuritas added that the elevated credit cost pressure is likely to persist, especially in the microloan segment, where growth in restructured loans continues to weigh on profitability.
Q1 Earnings Slide, But Lending Remains Strong
BBRI booked consolidated net profit attributable to shareholders of Rp 13.67 trillion ($857 million) in Q1 2025, down 13.92% year-on-year from Rp 15.88 trillion ($994 million) in the same period last year.
However, total loan disbursement rose 5.2% to Rp 1,373.66 trillion ($86.2 billion) as of March 2025, compared to Rp 1,308.65 trillion in March 2024. Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) remained the core focus, accounting for Rp 1,126.02 trillion ($70.7 billion), up 3.4% year-on-year.